Posts Tagged: ‘season’

Tis the Season to Trade the Seasonal Charts, Dow, Gold, Silver, Oil and Gas

December 21, 2011 Posted by admin

Dec 2nd, 2009
The market has had a fantastic week so far for stocks and precious metals. The financial and energy sector are underperforming which is a concern, but we continue to hold our positions and will wait until a reversal to lock in our gains.

Things seem to be lining up for stocks and precious metals to take a breather, which is in line with the Dow Jones Seasonal chart below.

Let’s take a look…

Dow Jones ETF
You can see from looking at the chart the repeated pattern of price rallies, leading to exhaustion and a test of support, followed by another repeat of the pattern. It looks as if the broad market is setup for a test of support which could happen within 2-4 days. Then as we near the holiday prices will start to drift higher. This pattern occurs more often than not as seen on the Dow Jones Seasonal chart below.

Broad Market Holiday Rally

Dow Jones Seasonal Trends
This chart clearly shows weakness in the first half of December and continued strength moving forward. This has not really happened in the past two years which means we are overdue for continued strength. ?

That being said, the previous two years were bear markets and we are now in a bull market. So the tendency is for buying to continue into year end.

Dow Jones Seasonal Trends

GLD ETF Fund
Gold continues to push higher surprising many of us. It seems as though money is rushing into metals and buyers are not particularly concern about price. While this is great for short term traders and those of us in the trade, we must remember that the faster things go up, the quicker they correct.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think gold is going to crash, I just think we could get a 10% correction before moving much higher. Gold is also trading near the upper end of the trend channel and could have a 2-4 day consolidation with the broad market before pushing much higher.

GLD ETF Trading

SLV Exchange Traded Fund
Silver has been underperforming yellow gold but is still a solid investment. It is also trading near the upper end of the trend channel and could have a 2-4 day consolidation with the broad market.

Silver ETF Trade

USO & UNG Funds
Oil continues to flag from its breakout back in October. This is a bullish pattern. Last Friday we saw oil open much lower then rally back into the trend channel. This is called an outside day and many times this happens to stocks and commodities as it shakes out the weak traders before starting another rally higher. We will keep a close eye for any low risk entry point.

Natural Gas had a nice rally last week which I mentioned looks a lot like a short covering rally. The price action this week suggests it was and has now made a new low. Today on CNBC it was reported that a new source of natural gas has been discovered. This resource is 20 times larger than the biggest source in the US. Enough gas to last the US over 100 years. This added to the selling on both natural gas and oil today.

Energy ETF Newsletter

Trading Conclusion:
Precious metals continue to perform well and it’s important to note that PM stocks are now moving higher with gold. They have been lagging for some time but are on fire again. Great to see!

The Dow Jones index and several others look ready for a breather. The timing of these overbought charts bodes well for the seasonal December pause before the holiday rally. Time will tell.

Energy and financials are both underperforming the market and without their participation we will not see the indexes move much higher.

Continue to hold precious metals positions but be ready to lock in profits if we see the market reverse sharply. I am watching energy for a play but no setups at this time.

Check out my Free ETF Trading Newsletter

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. Since 2001 Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris’ uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

Reach Chris at: Chris[at]theGoildAndOilGuy[dot]com

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/tis-the-season-to-trade-the-seasonal-charts-dow-gold-silver-oil-and-gas-1534304.html

WORKING CAPITAL FINANCING –BOON TO BUSINESS

November 8, 2011 Posted by admin

INTRODUCTION:

It is widely accepted that every successful business must have a strong working capital position. It is in this context; an attempt was made to explain the concept and various determinative factors influencing net current assets below:

Gross working capital refers to working capital as the total of current assets. That is to say, Gross working capital = Total current assets.
Net working capital refers to working capital as excess of current assets over current liabilities. In other words net working capital refers to current assets financed by long term funds or capital employed of the business.

 Accordingly, Net working capital = Current assets – Current liabilities

The net working capital position of the firm is an imperative contemplation, as this will determine the firm’s profitability and risk. Here the profitability refers to profits after expenses and risk refers to the probability that a firm will become technically insolvent where it will be unable to meet obligations when they become due for payment.

A finance manager has to make an appropriate financing mix, which will limit the risk and increase the profitability. Financing mix refers to the proportion of current assets financed by current liabilities and long term funds.

There are two approaches which determine the financing mix (1) Aggressive approach (2) Conservative approach.

According to aggressive approach the long term funds are used to finance only the core or fixed portion of current assets (e.g., minimum level of finished goods inventory, raw material etc) and the other portion i.e. temporary and seasonal requirements are financed by short term funds. This is of high risk and high profit financing mix.

According to conservative approach the total current assets are financed from long term sources and short term sources are used only in emergency situation i.e. when there is an unexpected cash outflow. This is of low-risk and low-profit financing mix.

As we observed two methods of financing mix, one method is of high risk high profit and other is of risk low profit. A finance manager has to trade off between these two extremes.

Operating Cycle:

As there is a time lag between sales and realization of receivables there is a need for sufficient working capital to deal with the problem which arises due to lack of immediate realization of cash against goods sold. The operating cycle is the length of time required for conversion of non-cash assets into cash. This operating cycle refers to the time taken for the conversion of cash into raw material, raw materials into work-in-progress, work-in-progress into finished goods, finished into receivables into cash and this cycle repeats.

The operating cycle length differs from firm to firm. If a firm has lengthy production process or a firm has liberal credit policy the length of operating cycle will be more. On the other hand, if a firm does not extent credit or the firm is not a manufacturing concern i.e. where cash will be converted into inventory directly then the length of operating cycle will be reduced to a greater extent.

The length of operating cycle is calculated based on the following:

  1. Raw materials storage period    (RMSP)
  2. Work in process period              (WIPP)
  3. Finished goods storage period   (FGP)
  4. Debtors collection period            (DCP)
  5. Creditors Payment Period           (CPP)

Therefore Length of operating cycle = 1+2+ 3+4-5

FACTORS INFLUENCING WORKING CAPITAL NEEDS:

A firm should have neither low nor high working capital. Low working capital involves more risk and more returns, high working capital involves less risk and less returns. Risk here refers to technical insolvency while returns refer to increased profits/earnings. The amount of working capital is determined by a wide variety of factors:

  1. Nature of Business: The working capital requirement of a firm depends on the nature of the business. For example, a firm involved in sale of services rather than manufacturing or a firm is allowing only cash sales. In the first instance, no investment is required in either raw materials or WIP or finished goods, while in the second occasion there exists no receivable as there is immediate realization of cash. Hence the requirement of working capital will be lower.

 2    Seasonality of Operations:

If the product of the firm has a seasonal demand like refrigerators, the firms need high working capital in the periods of summer, as the demand for the refrigerators is more and the firm needs low working capital in the periods of winter, as the demand for the product is low.

3.      Production Cycle:

The term production cycle refers to the time involved in the manufacture of goods. It covers the time span between the procurement of the raw materials and the completion of the manufacturing process leading to the production of goods. As funds are necessarily tied up during the production cycle, the production cycle has a bearing on the quantum of working capital.

The longer the time span of production cycle, the larger will be the funds tied up and therefore the larger the working capital needed and vice versa.

4.Production Policy:

The quantum of working capital is also determined by production policy. In case of the firms having seasonal demand of the products like refrigerators, air coolers etc. and the production policy of the firm determines the amount of working capital requirement. If the firm has production policy to carry production at a steady level to meet the peak demand, this will result in a large accumulation of finished goods (inventories) during the off-seasons and the abrupt sale during the peak season. The progressive accumulation of finished goods will naturally require an increasing amount of working capital. If the firm has production policy to produce only when there is a demand then the firm needs low working capital during the slack season and high working capital during season.

 5. Credit Policy:

The level of the working capital is also determined by the credit policy, as the firm’s credit policy determines the amount of receivables. If the firm has a liberal credit policy, then the firm needs high working capital and the firm needs low working capital if the company’s credit policy does not allow it to extend credit to the buyers.

6. Market Conditions:

The working capital requirements are also determined by the market conditions. In case of the high degree of competition prevailing in the market the firm has to maintain larger inventories as customers are not inclined to wait for the product. This needs higher working capital requirements. If there is good demand for the product and the competition is weak, a firm can manage with smaller inventory of finished goods, as customers can wait for the product if it is not available in the market.

Thus, a firm can manage with low inventory and will need low working capital requirements.

 7.Conditions of Supply:

The availability of raw materials and spares also determine the level of working capital. If there is ready availability of raw materials and spares, a firm can maintain minimum inventory and need less working capital. If the supply of raw materials is unpredictable, then the firm has to acquire stocks as and when they are available for ensuring continuous production.

Thus, the firm needs to maintain larger inventory average and needs larger requirementofworkingcapital.

CONCLUSION:

From the above discussion, it is made clear that the objective of financial management is to maximize the shareholders wealth. Hence, it is needed to generate sufficient profits. The profits generated depend mainly on sales volume. When the goods are being sold on credit as is the normal practice of business firms today to cope with increased competition the sale of goods cannot be converted into cash instantly because of time lag between sales and realization of cash. Further this is possible only through evolving effective working capital policy and better administration on current assets financing.

 

 

 

Dr.R.SRINIVASAN is a Post graduate in commerce and Management. He received his doctoral degree from Alagappa University in 1997. He is now Working as an ASSOCIATE PROFESSORin Post graduate and Research Department of Corporate Secretaryship at Bharathidasan Government College for Women (Autonomous), Pondicherry University, Puducherry.He currently teaches Accounting ,financial management and Research Methodology Subjects. Before Joining BGCW, he was teaching in SNR College, Coimbatore, Sindhi college, Chennai& T.S.Narayanasamy College, Chennai for eight years. He was with the industry for a short term at Salzar Electronics Pvt. Ltd, Coimbatore. He has about 20 years of teaching experience and having research experience of 15 years. His interests are in Accounting and finance, Capital Market, Quantitative Methods. He underwent the Faculty Development Programme at Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad during 2000-01. He has presented 20 papers in national and international conferences and has published twenty papers in the areas of Finance and Human resource Management in National Journals. Co-authored a book titled, ‘Investors Protection, published by Raj Publications, New Delhi He has delivered lectures in contemporary finance topics at Pondicherry University. He is involved in consultancy projects for Godrej Saralee, Chennai in the areas of Statistical Applications. He has supervised a number of research projects in the area of corporate finance and Human Resource Management. He is the Board of examiner in corporate Secretaryship and Management for the past two decades.
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Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/working-capital-financing-boon-to-business-1359680.html

Tips on Caribbean Shopping (watch Out, Pirates!)

June 21, 2010 Posted by admin

Veteran cruisers to the Mexican Riveria will tell you that there is more to recommend Cozumel than just electric blue waters, killer Margaritas, and great snorkeling. It may just be one of the all-time best shopping destinations in the Caribbean. So how can you steer clear of the pirates of the Caribbean (most of whom no longer wear eye patches but instead operate shops catering to tourists) and get a good deal?

Some of the best shopping in Cozumel is within easy walking distance of the port. The cruise ship docks and shoppers can pretty much walk to great shopping in a few minutes. But there are lots of shops and even sidewalk displays. How do you know what’s what?

There are really two main categories of merchandise in Cozumel. The first might be considered in the souvenir category and spans trinkets to very nice quality merchandise with a distinctive Mexican feel. The second category would be luxury products.

If your shopping list includes colorful but inexpensive jewelry, a bottle of tequila, a leather wallet, and some Mexican pottery, there are quite a few shops that will meet your needs. One of the best and easiest to navigate is Cinco Soles (Five Suns) near the port. Here you can find everything from toys to dishes to T-shirts to leather goods along with the ubiquitous tequila and bottles of vanilla (Mexican vanilla is generally of very high quality and reasonably priced). The store personnel speak English and accept credit cards.

A fun shop in Cozumel that is not really Mexican is Del Sol which sells plain-looking T-shirts, tote bags, Frisbees, even nail polish, that change color when exposed to sunlight. Del Sol stores are located at many locations (not just Cozumel) but they’re still fun and the bright sunlight of Mexico shows off the Del Sol treasures to great effect. There’s one near the cruise port.

You may also see small sidewalk displays and other offers for everything from marionettes to dangling earrings. Wending your way through the shopping district of Cozumel can be tough, since merchants will speak to you and attempt to lure you into their shops. You can simply walk on by; merchants will not actually grab you and push you into their stores. If you make eye contact, you will be at a massive disadvantage; the more you respond to them, the more likely they will be to kick up their persuasion a notch to get you into the shop. On the other hand, if you’re out shopping, it can be fun to talk to local merchants and allow them to show off their best wares for you.

There are lots of big and small displays of such goods and if you do not spend very much, it is unlikely you can go too far wrong.

The other end of the Cozumel shopping spectrum involves luxury stores. Believe it or not, there are several outlets of Diamonds International and other high-end jewelry stores in Cozumel. You’ll see them all over as you walk along the waterfront (likely in view of your cruise ship, that’s how close they are).

Specialties at these stores include high-end watches, gold, silver, diamonds, emeralds, tanzanite, Mexican fire opal, and two rare gemstones ammolite and alexandrite. (If you do not know these stones, it can be worth a visit to one of these stores to see them.)

Don’t expect these stores to offer diamond rings for a pittance. But there are reasons why savvy jewelry buyers make the trek to Cozumel to do some special shopping.

First, there is no sales tax in Cozumel. If you stay within your allowance for the amount of merchandise you can bring home without paying duty (which is $800 for a U.S. citizen), you pay only for the merchandise. In the U.S., sales tax is around 8% and it is even higher in Canada and Europe.

Second, many of these top stores have an international presence. You can get customer service once you’re back home.

Third, many cruise lines have developed relationships with some of these stores. This sometimes engenders suspicion, but the relationships are actually beneficial to cruise passengers eager to buy high-end merchandise.

If your cruise ship has a shopping expert or if there is a talk on shopping, by all means participate if you think you’ll be buying products (particularly jewelry) in Cozumel. It is true that the shopping guru onboard will steer you toward certain shops and it is likely that those shops have paid a promotional consideration to the cruise line for that publicity.

But here is why that’s good for passengers. Most cruise lines will not endorse just any store that can pay a fee. Cruises return to the same port over and over again in a season and it would not be good business to recommend shops that were difficult to deal with, charged exorbitant prices, or otherwise were bad news for the customers.

Second, some cruise lines (such as Carnival) will allow you to register your purchases at selected stores while onboard. If you take advantage of this service, the cruise line guarantees the merchandise. That means if your new watch stops once you get home or you find out your gold and tanzanite ring is not authentic, the cruise line backs the merchandise.

Finding out if your cruise line does this and what shops it recommends is a great activity for you to do on your day(s) at sea before hitting Cozumel. Registering purchases with the cruise line should be done on the next sea day because you must register what you buy while still onboard the ship.

Luxury items abound in Cozumel: jewelry, perfume, watches, and even rugs. Rugs from exotic places like Turkey, India, Pakistan and Persia can be purcased in Cozumel (great selection, no sales tax, outstanding service) and shipped to your address back home. The Rug Emporium offers an extensive display, lots of English-speaking help, and free shipping Stateside.

Last but not least, lots of people buy liquor in Cozumel. Tequila and Kahlua are the most popular but by no means the only alcoholic purchases you can make. Liquor can be purchased in Cozumel at the shops or can be bought onboard ship for around the same price (but possibly not with the same selection).

The same is true for perfume. The onboard shops likely offer some fragrance and cosmetic products, but the big perfume shop on Cozumel’s main street by the harbor has a much more extensive collection. If what you like is onboard, you can probably get about the same good deal as you can by buying it in the land shop. However, if you want to see a broader range of products or you want to buy a product that the onboard boutique does not stock, you need to try the land store.

Cigar aficionados will find that Cuban cigars are not only legal in Cozumel (and onboard once the ship is in international waters) but plentiful. If this is a big deal for you, enjoy them in Mexico and on the boat, but don’t bring them back into the U.S.

So what about those famous pirates of the Caribbean? Like any buzzing shopping mecca, Cozumel has its share of merchants who sell shoddy merchandise, counterfeit products, or things they claim to be silver and gold (which are not). If you are not expert enough to know the difference, steer clear of shady looking vendors or shops far off the beaten track. The old adage “if it looks too good to be true, it probably is” holds true for ridiculously priced diamonds or gemstones.

Most cruise lines will warn you to avoid spending big money with dubious vendors. If you want to buy a T-shirt, a kid’s necklace, or some typical souvenir items, go ahead and shop the small stores or street vendors. If you are thinking of spending hundreds or thousands on jewelry, go to a reputable and recommended store. They’re there in Cozumel!

Zip on over to http://www.TheCruise-Shopper.com for the latest in cruise ship information. TheCruise-Shopper does not sell travel so you won’t be under any pressure to buy anything (not like going to Cozumel). Mandy Karlik wrote this article. Her last Cozumel purchases: a leather wallet, Chanel Chance perfume, and a very wonderful new watch. Imagine what she could do if she had more than a couple of hours!

The Best Way to Enjoy a Fine Cigar is to Give One

May 19, 2010 Posted by admin

A fine cigar is one of life’s luxuries. Just open a fine mahogany humidor, select a fragrant private-stock cigar, and light up. The experience is one that is memorable and enduring. The reason for this is because our sense of smell is the sense that is closest related to memory in the human brain, and the aroma of a fine cigar will be just that.

In a time when we must reflect on what we can do with what we have and what we have to offer, it is a luxury that can be truly appreciated and enjoyed. There’s a reason behind the saying, “A fine cigar gets you through every major life event.”

Selecting cigars to give as gifts for the holiday season is also a way to show that you have every expectation that the future will be bright. There are many ways to buy cigars to give as holiday gifts:

1.Purchase from online companies that enjoy great reputations and will deliver at a discounted rate. Make sure you will be given notice as to the conditions of delivery, so that the cigars arrive fresh and are not dried out or damp.

2.Go to a local tobacconist. Enter their walk-in humidors and purchase some fine cigars that way. Reputable dealers will be happy to supply you with information regarding the type, size and style or cigar for your budget.

3.Going to a newspaper stand or a drugstore to purchase cigars is not a bad idea. There are some very reputable brands that are carried by such sellers; however, you must make sure that your purchase is fresh and offers a good quality cigar. These will not be the locations to find premium or super-premium cigars.

The persons who will appreciate such a gift are:

1.Professionals who have done a great job like your broker and your lawyer.

2.The postman, gardener, janitor or mailman in your building. You must make sure they smoke cigars, and if they do, they will treasure and appreciate the gift. Cigars will go much further than cookies or fruitcake in this regard.

3.The people in your life who matter and who might enjoy support. Enclose a note that says “Times are tough, but you’re tougher.”

4.Musician and artist friends who appreciate the challenges of unstable economic times. These types of people are often without funds to purchase fine cigars and will be appreciative of the luxury of a fine cigar.

Whatever the reason for giving cigars as a gift, your budget can include either one cigar or a box of 10 or 20 or more. The gift is consumable and biodegradable because cigar tobacco is the finest and most chemically pure of all tobaccos.

There is nothing like knowing that you are giving the best, and a fine cigar is an outstanding way to keep friends, clients or sponsors well appointed toward you and all your endeavors.

For access to the best Fine Cigars and Cigar accessories available check out the great deals available only on the authors website – http://www.davidoffmadison.com

Common Sense Turkey Hunting Tips for the Autumn Season

January 25, 2010 Posted by admin

For most turkey hunters, springtime hunting is where it is. Autumn is a busy time for hunters – it is deer season, upland hunting season, waterfowl hunting season – the list goes on and on. For that reason, most hunters put off the turkey hunting until the spring, but this fact can make autumn turkey hunting very satisfying. Hunting turkeys during the fall is less crowded, and you’ll have less competition for the birds. Add to that the fact that autumn tends to be turkey eating seasons, and you can see how forgoing the deer hunting for a little turkey hunting in the fall can be a very good thing.

Turkey hunting in the fall is an altogether different beast than spring turkey hunting, and it can be quite a bit more challenging. In the spring, the male turkeys are on the prowl, looking for a hen, so it can be fairly easy to lure one away from the pack by making hen calls. In the fall, the male turkeys aren’t so interested in the hens and instead tend to roam around in packs together (likewise for the hens, of course, but hunting mature male turkeys is preferable). Separating these groups can be a little bit more difficult and requires a different approach than spring turkey hunting.

When you are hunting in the autumn, it is best to stick to a certain progression of activities. The ideal situation is to stumble upon a pack of male turkeys and take position hidden from view. When you are out of eyeshot of the turkeys, preferably at least 100 yards away from them start trying to call them in to you. Now, it is important here to not make hen calls as you would in spring hunting. You instead want to make the kinds of gobbles that male turkeys make – these gobbles are usually slower and lower pitched than the hen gobbles. What you want to do here is lure on turkey away from the pack. Sometimes, however, this plan backfires. You may end up luring the entire pack, which is not ideal for taking a clean shot, and sometimes you may end up luring in a hen. If you bring in a hen, run her away. If you bring in the entire pack, you will need to take a different tact.

If the whole pack of male turkeys moves in on you, or if they do not respond to your calls, you need to go on to plan B. Instead of trying to call the turkeys, scatter the pack. You can do this by rushing up on them making loud noises, or you can use a turkey hunting dog that is trained to scatter (you don’t want the dog to chase them too far away once they scatter). The object here is to split up the pack and then call in a turkey that has not reattached to the group. Once the turkeys are scattered, wait around 15 minutes, and then start your calls again, trying to call in that lone bird. If the turkeys seem to be running too far away, start the calling sooner, but waiting a little bit is ideal.

At this point, it is simply a matter of waiting. Because the turkeys aren’t trying to mate like they are in the spring, they are a little less motivated to respond to calls. You may have to repeat the scatter and call routine a few times before one takes the bait. For most autumn turkey hunters, however, this is the fun part. You have the woods to yourself and you can take your time and enjoy the thrill of the hunt.

Bill is a turkey hunter enthusiast, and if you would like more about turkey hunting tips and how to turkey hunt, please visit http://www.howtohuntturkey.com

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Cheap Ski Deals Are Available This Season

January 7, 2010 Posted by admin

With the economy in a mess, many people are searching for cheap ski deals this season. The good news? You can find them all over the internet! The lodges and resorts are drastically cutting prices in an effort to fill their rooms and their slopes. This means that you can save a bundle of money on your favorite winter sport!

Where to Begin Your Search

You may think that the internet is only good for getting discounted airfare specials, but many of today’s resorts have terrific savings available on their websites. It’s also well worth your time to check out some of the savings available through travel agencies. In some cases, these agencies have bought blocks of airfares, hotel rooms, and even lift tickets at discounted prices. This discount is passed onto their customers, so you can see the savings, too.

How certain are you of the dates of your trip? If you are flexible, you may find even more cheap ski deals. This is because there are several weeks during the season when the slopes are less crowded. The beginning and end of the season are usually the busiest. Scheduling your trip during the middle of the season can get you some fantastic rates.

Stay a Few Days

Many of the resorts and lodges are offering terrific deals on mutliple day lift passes. You can find “buy one day get one free” specials, as well as free lift tickets for kids when you purchase an adult pass. The savings can add up quickly, especially if there are several people traveling together. Group discounts will usually apply if there are more than eight or ten people, too. Sometimes, this can be the most affordable packages available.

Save Time and Money with Complete Packages

Probalby the best way to save is to purchase a complete package that includes your transportation, room, lift tickets, and in some cases, even your food. It depends on where and when you will travel. In these packages, each part is discounted, so you see some real savings.

Flying? Consider Leaving Your Skis at Home

One of the most frustrating parts of flying anywhere has to be dealing with checked baggage. The airlines are charged astronomical fees for checking baggage, and that includes your equipment. If you are check two bags, including skis, then you could end up paying an extra $150 by the time you return home. Consider renting your equipment at the lodge to save some money.

A Final Thought

You simply need to spend a few moments doing research to find cheap ski deals right now. It’s a great time to get away for a few days and you can bet you’ll thoroughly enjoy the slopes!

Finally, one place for all things related to cheap ski deals. Learn all the secrets of how budget minded travelers save big bucks when hitting the slopes. You don’t have to pay a fortune for a few days fun in the snow! Check out the secrets, tips, and tricks to locating these cheap ski deals!

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/hobbies-articles/cheap-ski-deals-are-available-this-season-1678872.html