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Trading crude oil can be very difficult and there are many factors that affect its price.

Oil is currently drifting higher day by day. Although there has been a recent pull back in line with equity markets from the highs, we are still far higher now than we were 12 months ago.

For all of the talk about variation from dependence on oil, the fact remains that a huge percentage of our energy usage still relies on crude oil. While there are other alternatives to petrol and diesel we are stuck with the historical infrastructure built around these, as anyone who has searched for an LPG or bio-fuel garage will testify.

The daily markets are providing some interesting opportunities for those who are able to buy and sell crude oil. For the Nymex US Oil futures contract, a recent attempted rally ran into quicksand far faster than the bulls might have expected.

The moves higher are still very aggressive but we are now running into general-drifting-lower periods when not much is going on. This is in stark contrast to earlier trading sessions which saw continued upside pressure throughout.

Whisper it quietly but there is a certain amount of trepidation. If we cannot get back onto the front foot soon, the current over-supply of oil, which the markets have ignored for some time, might outweigh the recent concerns about ‘future demand outpacing production’.

Towards the end of 2009 oil had something of a gravitational pull to the $80 per barrel level. Having said that there was, and still is, a degree of volatility around the weekly Oil inventories (due out on Wednesdays 15.30 at local London time and 09.30 local New York time).

Many traders seem to be flattening positions out before the weekly inventories and they are only taking a view in the aftermath.

If I am trading the oil markets, be it US Oil (WTI) and/or UK Oil (Brent) then I prefer to trade my short term positions through a spread betting account.

There are a number of Financial Services Authority regulated companies that offer thousands of international markets including crude oil, currencies, stocks and shares. Spread betting firms, like FinancialSpreads.com and IG Index offer the normal benefits of spread betting including; tax free trading*, trading outside market hours, no brokers fees and no commissions.

Be aware though, spread bets do carry a high level of risk to your capital and you can lose more than your initial stake. You should only speculate with funds you can afford to lose. Before trading, ensure that spread betting matches your investment objectives and familiarise yourself with the risks involved. If necessary, seek independent advice.

* According to current UK and Irish tax law, this may change or differ depending on your personal circumstances.

Based in the heart of London’s financial district, Daniel Jones is a seasoned spread betting professional and commentator on some of the leading UK spread betting sites

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/crude-oil-trading-1597864.html

The increasing strength in world economic data does not seem to be translating, just yet, into more demand for crude. While ‘peak oil’ is a phrase on everyone’s lips it must be said that production from many parts of the globe is currently artificially constrained.

Producers seem willing to turn on the taps above $75, as a sort of profitable-commitment to world growth. While everyone blamed the financial institutions for the collapse in the global economy the impact of $147 per barrel of oil was not exactly a helpful factor.

Looking at the day-to-day trend more closely, oil looks to have found a ceiling as it struggles to get beyond the $80 level.

Whenever there is any strength in the US Dollar that has naturally led to weakness in oil prices as investors close positions, very much a flight from risk.

Strength in the equity markets and weakness in the Dollar normally translates into rising Oil prices. Although we are still seeing some good market rallies, it seems that dealers are less confident than in times past.

The failure to break permanently above $80 may be worrying the Crude Oil bulls a bit as all the normal impetus required seemed to be in place. If the Dollar starts to strengthen, unlikely as it might seem, we may find that dealers are pressuring the support levels again rather than the resistances.

Since the highs at $82 in the US WTI Oil contracts in October 2009 we have had a series of attempted rallies, all of them failing at lower and lower levels. Looking at the oil charts, we now have a very nice falling-trend-line-top to aim for.

Should we close above the trend line there may well be a reaction move to new highs. But, and there is always a ‘but’, the longer we remain below the trend easier it will be for the bears to drive prices lower.

So what should an investor look to do? I prefer to trade the oil markets through spread betting. Note though, there are downsides to all forms of investing and with spread trading you need to be careful because you can lose more than your initial investment.

On the plus side though, there is no capital gains tax, no stamp duty and no income tax on spread betting*.

Also, an interesting benefit is the number of markets that you can trade. Spread betting firms often offer thousands of markets from European and US shares to gold and Dollar/Sterling currency rates. Naturally you can trade both US and UK crude oil spreads.

With the volatile markets like oil, being able to short a market provides interesting opportunities. You do not have to speculate on markets to go up. If your research leads to you think the price of crude oil will go up, you can, of course, bet on it to go up. However, if you think that oil will go down you can bet on it to go down.

It is important to note though that spread bets carry a high level of risk to your capital so you should only speculate with money you can afford to lose. Like the adverts say, before trading, please ensure that spread betting matches your investment objectives. Make sure you familiarise yourself with the risks involved. If necessary seek independent advice.

* Based on current UK tax law, if you pay tax in another jurisdiction then tax law may vary.

Robert Thomas is a financial journalist and a commodities spread betting writer offering strategic views on a range of financial markets.

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/trading-the-us-and-uk-crude-oil-markets-1584632.html

Dec 6th, 2009
The first half of last week started out strong with stock and precious metal ETFs moving higher. The week ended with less certainty of direction. The energy sector underperformed the market with crude oil and natural gas moving lower.

Below are some ETF charts showing where the broad market and commodities are trading with some analysis showing what could transpire going into the year end holiday season.

DIA ETF – Daily Trading Chart
The DIA ETF that I am using to represent the Dow Industrial Average looks to be over bought and ready for a pullback. The broadening formation indicates volatility is rising and that the bulls are losing control. This pattern occurs in all time frames and in stocks, commodities and exchange traded funds. Remember this pattern when looking at charts as it could save you some money.

Using simple analysis we can see where the Dow is likely to test. With any luck this could happen quickly and be followed by a nice low volume rally going into to the holiday.

GLD Gold Exchange Traded Fund – Daily & Weekly Charts
Gold had a huge rally the first half of the week but gave it all back and then some on Friday. I have been warning about this sharp profit taking correction for a few days making sure everyone had tightened their stops or started to trim their positions. We locked in a nice 11.9% gain on Friday as our stop for GLD was triggered.

GLD fund is likely to trade in one of two scenarios this week:
1.Move side-ways after last week’s sell off
2.Or continue moving down as investors and short term traders review Friday’s action and place their sell orders for Monday.

Take a look at the small weekly chart which is located within the daily chart below. We had a very big volume week and a reversal candle indicating a shift in momentum. If we are lucky this could be a quick pause before another move up, but I am thinking gold will need several weeks to gain its footing. Only time will tell, and either way we will be ready.

SLV Fund – Daily & Weekly Charts
Silver had a sharp pullback with gold on Friday but because silver did not have investors tripping over each other trying to buy it like gold, the sell off was much more controlled. Silver breached the lower trend channel line but closed back above it to end the week.

Silver is trading at the lower level of its trend channel and at a support level. There is a good change it will bounce Monday or Tuesday. But until we see what gold is doing at the open Monday morning I would not be jumping into anything at this point.

The weekly chart shows a reversal candle signaling strong selling pressure and this is the reason I would not be buying here. Let’s watch for a few days and see what happens.

USO Oil Fund – Weekly Charts
Crude oil has been weak the past 2 months as it drifts sideways from the October breakout. Not much to say here other than let’s wait for some action and a low risk setup.

UNG Natural Gas Fund – 60 Minute and Weekly Chart
This year I think natural gas has taken more money from traders than any other fund. Virtually everyone has been burned by this extremely over sold commodity. The 60 minute chart shows three resistance levels. But if you combine all of them there is significant resistance from $8.80 – $9.25. That is the test of the August lows.

We reached the August lows and that is what triggered the bounce and short covering rally 2 weeks ago. We have now seen prices slip below that level on rising volume which is bearish. With prices below this major resistance level I think we will see sellers step in on each bounce to push prices back down.

Stocks and Commodity ETF Trading Conclusion:
The broad stock market looks ready for a small correction. That being said the tape does not lie and we continue to see money flow into stocks which is why the dow, sp500 and Russell 2000 are holding up well. These crossed signals are the reason money/position management is so important for traders. Scaling in and out of positions during oversold and overbought conditions is crucial for pulling money out of the market consistently.

I do this by tightening my stop to lock in a gain on 25-50% of my position, while holding a core position in the event prices continue to rise. This way I make a premium on part of my trade and have my stop moved to break even or higher for the core position allowing it some wiggle room as prices consolidate before the next leg higher.

Gold and silver could go either way quickly this week. We have locked in some good money last week and now we hold our core position. From here I expect the gold and silver to play out in one of three ways:
1.Prices continue higher and we ride our core positions for larger gains.
2.Price continues to correct and we get another low risk entry point to add to our core position, then prices rally.
3.Or, precious metals have a melt down and we take a small 5% gain on our core position.

Crude Oil and Natural Gas are not tradable at this time. We need to see more price action before a high probability setup will develop. Let’s watch and wait these out some more.

Chck out my Free Weekly ETF Trading Newsletter

Chris Vermeulen
Disclaimer: I currently own GLD fund

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. Since 2001 Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris’ uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

Reach Chris at: Chris[at]theGoildAndOilGuy[dot]com

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/do-gold-silver-and-oil-etfs-take-a-pause-or-melt-down-1547677.html

Dec 2nd, 2009
The market has had a fantastic week so far for stocks and precious metals. The financial and energy sector are underperforming which is a concern, but we continue to hold our positions and will wait until a reversal to lock in our gains.

Things seem to be lining up for stocks and precious metals to take a breather, which is in line with the Dow Jones Seasonal chart below.

Let’s take a look…

Dow Jones ETF
You can see from looking at the chart the repeated pattern of price rallies, leading to exhaustion and a test of support, followed by another repeat of the pattern. It looks as if the broad market is setup for a test of support which could happen within 2-4 days. Then as we near the holiday prices will start to drift higher. This pattern occurs more often than not as seen on the Dow Jones Seasonal chart below.

Dow Jones Seasonal Trends
This chart clearly shows weakness in the first half of December and continued strength moving forward. This has not really happened in the past two years which means we are overdue for continued strength. ?

That being said, the previous two years were bear markets and we are now in a bull market. So the tendency is for buying to continue into year end.

GLD ETF Fund
Gold continues to push higher surprising many of us. It seems as though money is rushing into metals and buyers are not particularly concern about price. While this is great for short term traders and those of us in the trade, we must remember that the faster things go up, the quicker they correct.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think gold is going to crash, I just think we could get a 10% correction before moving much higher. Gold is also trading near the upper end of the trend channel and could have a 2-4 day consolidation with the broad market before pushing much higher.

SLV Exchange Traded Fund
Silver has been underperforming yellow gold but is still a solid investment. It is also trading near the upper end of the trend channel and could have a 2-4 day consolidation with the broad market.

USO & UNG Funds
Oil continues to flag from its breakout back in October. This is a bullish pattern. Last Friday we saw oil open much lower then rally back into the trend channel. This is called an outside day and many times this happens to stocks and commodities as it shakes out the weak traders before starting another rally higher. We will keep a close eye for any low risk entry point.

Natural Gas had a nice rally last week which I mentioned looks a lot like a short covering rally. The price action this week suggests it was and has now made a new low. Today on CNBC it was reported that a new source of natural gas has been discovered. This resource is 20 times larger than the biggest source in the US. Enough gas to last the US over 100 years. This added to the selling on both natural gas and oil today.

Trading Conclusion:
Precious metals continue to perform well and it’s important to note that PM stocks are now moving higher with gold. They have been lagging for some time but are on fire again. Great to see!

The Dow Jones index and several others look ready for a breather. The timing of these overbought charts bodes well for the seasonal December pause before the holiday rally. Time will tell.

Energy and financials are both underperforming the market and without their participation we will not see the indexes move much higher.

Continue to hold precious metals positions but be ready to lock in profits if we see the market reverse sharply. I am watching energy for a play but no setups at this time.

Check out my Free ETF Trading Newsletter

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. Since 2001 Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris’ uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

Reach Chris at: Chris[at]theGoildAndOilGuy[dot]com

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/tis-the-season-to-trade-the-seasonal-charts-dow-gold-silver-oil-and-gas-1534304.html

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Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/for-a-growing-and-expanding-venture-invest-in-oil-and-gas-1527712.html

Precious Metals ETF have gone wild the past 2 weeks. Last week we saw gold and silver prices drop sharply as it shook out short-term trader’s stop orders before breaking out and moving higher. Also there is a disconnect between gold and the dollar.

Energy commodities like natural gas and crude oil are moving in opposite directions and look to be picking up speed. Natural gas is losing pressure and oil is on fire.

GLD ETF Trading – Pivot Trading Low

Last week we had our pivot trading low generate another buy signal for gold. Trading pivot lows is a simple trading strategy.  I call them low-risk setups and take advantage of buying a stock, commodity, or currency after a pullback to support and when a reversal candle is formed. The chart clearly shows when you are trading with the trend buying on the dips is generally a low risk play with great up-side potential.

Precious Metals ETF Trading – Gold Bullion Takes Control

The chart shows the performance of gold stocks (red), silver bullion (blue) and gold bullion (green). As you can see the past 2 weeks while the market has been selling down, precious metals stocks have been hit harder than silver and gold.

Because of the heavy selling in stocks recently, the smart money had been going into commodities, especially gold bullion. Gold stocks are a great play but this is telling us investors feel safer in physical bullion than stocks.

Gold is the most known precious metal and safe haven which is why it’s holding value better than silver and stocks. This week we are seeing gold become more valuable in several major currencies which means gold is actually making a real move higher.

USO ETF Trading – Breakout & Bull Flag

Crude oil has had some great breakouts this year and it looks like we are about to get another buy signal shortly. We had a breakout in October from the large pennant and are now flagging which is very bullish. We could see USO reach $50 in the next month or two.

UNG ETF Trading – Pivot Low or Waterfall Sell-Off?

Natural gas is at a crucial level for a higher low bounce or another massive panic sell-off. Trading right now with UNG is a 50/50 shot so we will just have to wait and let things unfold more before taking any action.

The Stock Markets, Precious Metals & Energy Trading Conclusion:

The market is starting to feel a little squirmy as it tries to find support. Small cap stocks continue to get crushed while blue-chip (large cap) stocks are holding more of their value. Gold has broken higher this week while silver and precious metal stocks under- perform their big sister Yellow Gold.

Crude oil is holding up nicely, forming a 3 week bull flag and showing signs of life while natural gas continues to get hammered.

The market has been jumpy the past 2 weeks because market participants are very uneasy about the future direction of the US dollar. 

If you would like to receive these free trading reports visit my website: www(dot)GoldAndOilGuy(dot)com

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site TheGoldAndOilGuy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. Since 2001 Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris’ uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/precious-metals-and-oil-gone-wild-1424757.html

Commodities so far this week have not changed much. But I can point out a few things for us to watch Thursday and Friday.

Precious Metals – Gold GLD fund – Silver SLV Fund – PM Stocks GDX Fund

We could start to see a shift between the price relationship between gold and the broad market. I pointed this out last week mentioning that gold and silver are starting to hold up in value while stocks sell off on big days. For example, Wednesday’s sell-off in equities did not have much effect on precious metals. This is what we want to see. It means money is moving out of stocks and into gold and silver bullion as a safe haven.

These three charts of GLD, SLV and GDX show Wednesday’s price action as gold and silver moved higher while precious metal stocks sold down with the rest of the market. This is generally a bearish indicator for gold and silver but because I am starting to see this happen more often and traders are ready for the market to top any day, I am seeing this as a bullish indicator. If the market starts to slide I have a feeling investors will be dumping a lot more money into gold and silver.

Energy – Oil USO Fund – Energy Stocks XLE Fund

We are seeing a similar pattern in the energy sector. Oil had a nice move higher today while energy stocks sold off.  Stocks are starting to fall out of favor. That being said, I do think I have found an oil play which could rocket higher in the coming days a possible 10 bagger. I will be providing this information in my service Thursday or Friday this week.

Natural Gas – UNG Fund

Natural gas is still in a bear market and trading under a major resistance trend line. This commodity could go either way so I am going to wait for the odds to be more on my side before jumping on board with a long or a short trade.

Mid-Week Gold, Silver, Oil and Nat Gas Conclusion:

The market is starting to look and feel top heavy with many indicators and price action patterns giving cross signals. While the market could continue to rocket higher with new money getting dumped in from average investors because of solid 3rd quarter earnings, we must be cautious by tightening our stops and take some profits off the table. Until we get a short term oversold market condition I am trading very conservatively.

Waiting for a good trade is crucial in trading. If you always want to trade and force positions when the market is choppy you end up with lower probability trades.

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. Since 2001 Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris’ uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

Reach Chris at: Chris[at]theGoildAndOilGuy[dot]com

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/gold-silver-oil-and-nat-gas-trading-report-1366377.html