Posts Tagged: ‘etf’

Precious Metals & Energy ETF Trading Report

December 3, 2011 Posted by admin

Precious Metals & Energy ETF Trading Report

 

So far this week has been generous with our commodity ETFs moving higher, other than natural gas which is clearly in a bear market. Each of the commodity ETF trading charts below is at a different stage and it will be interesting to see how things unfold in the coming weeks.

 

Trading ETFs is very rewarding when done properly and using multiple timeframes for timing your entry and exit points is crucial. My main focus is on the weekly and daily charts but I use a 30 minute intraday chart when the time comes to actually pick an exact buy or sell point. Below I have provided both the weekly and daily chart so you can see how the same ETF looks completely different on the two timeframes.

 

GLD ETF Trading – Weekly & Daily Trading Charts

 

The weekly chart a nice multi-month rally but is now starting to go parabolic (straight up). When this happens I start tightening my stops so that I can lock in maximum gains. Now, jump over to the daily chart and notice that gold has rallied longer than the previous move in early October. It looks overbought and ready for a pullback. Pullbacks on strong rallies like this tend to be hard and fast as stop orders get triggered sending prices tumbling down on heavy volume. My general thought is 5 days up in an investment is given back in 1 down day. This is why I scale out of positions when they are looking long in the tooth and ready for profit taking.

 

 

 

SLV ETF Trading – Weekly & Daily Trading Charts

 

Silver had been under performing gold for several weeks but made up some nice ground this week. Gold and silver tend to trade together so if gold pulls back I figure silver will also. That being said the weekly chart of silver looks ready to rocket higher for another week or so.

 

 

 

USO Fund Trading – Weekly & Daily Trading Charts

 

While gold and silver have been moving higher, oil has been flagging sideways taking a breather. Both the weekly and the daily charts are aligned for a nice move higher if the trend and charts follow through on their patterns.  We could get some tradable action in the next couple days.

 

 

 

UNG Fund Trading – Weekly & Daily Trading Charts

 

Natural gas is really starting to slide. Wednesday UNG dipped below the Sept. low of $8.94 by a couple cents then moved up into the close. Overall it’s not bullish. This could be the start of a waterfall sell off which is a sharp heavy volume sell off that lasts 3-5 days.

 

 

 

Commodity ETF Trading Conclusion:

 

To sum everything up the gold and silver ETFs are on fire as they continue to surge higher. Being ready for a sharp reversal is important if you want to lock in gains on a portion of your position.

 

Crude oil is taking its time but looking ripe for a breakout higher. We continue to watch for some action.

 

Natural gas continues to get pushed down and it’s not looking good for higher prices anytime soon. We are waiting for a shorting opportunity or an oversold condition to play a 1-5 day bounce.

 

Quick Trading Tip: If you have a position which has done well and has moved up for an extended period of time be sure to draw some trend lines and tighten your stop, or set a stop, under a tight trend line. Sell some of your position (25-50%) to lock in gains and let the core position continue to mature. If you get a pullback to a support level (previous breakout level) you can buy back the other part of your position at a lower price.

 

To learn more about ETF trading and how you can profit from this analysis, be sure to check out our ETF trading course!

 

Disclosure: I currently own the GLD ETF.

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site TheGoldAndOilGuy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. Since 2001 Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris’ uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/precious-metals-energy-etf-trading-report-1479760.html

Canadian Income Stocks!

November 7, 2011 Posted by admin

18 High-Dividend Canadian Stocks

 

 

The 2008 financial crisis uncannily echoes what happened in Japan more than a decade ago. In the 1990s, the Japanese banking systems had become overloaded with bad loans after a property bubble collapse, according to Gillian Tett, author of Fool’s Gold. The investor psychology seemed dangerously similar too.  If this is the case, investors who buy high yield stocks now could collect big dividends while the economy fights to get back on its feet.

 

The Associated Press (AP) reported on Friday that the U.S. federal budget deficit has surged to an all-time high of $1.42 trillion. The Obama administration projects deficits will total $9.1 trillion over the next decade. For weeks the US dollar’s decline sent gold to all-time highs and helped oil to over $78. Canada happens to have plenty of these commodities. 

 

The following are 18 Canadian companies listed on U.S. exchanges with market caps greater than $1 billion, reasonable P/E ratios, and dividend yields greater than 3.5% (sorted by yield):

 

 

Name

Symbol

P/E

Yield

Market Cap

PROVIDENT ENERGY TR

(PVX)

9.0

11.1%

1.66B

PENGROWTH EGY UTS

(PGH)

5.0

10.6%

2.61B

PENN WEST ENERGY TRU

(PWE)

5.1

10.1%

6.90B

ENERPLUS RES FD

(ERF)

5.8

8.4%

3.97B

HARVEST ENERGY TRUST

(HTE)

4.2

8.1%

1.14B

B C E INC

(BCE)

21.7

6.1%

18.82B

TELUS CORP

(TU)

8.6

5.8%

9.41B

PRECISION DRILL TRST

(PDS)

4.3

5.7%

1.91B

BANK OF MONTREAL

(BMO)

17.3

5.1%

27.68B

TRANSALTA CORP

(TAC)

21.9

5.1%

4.07B

BAYTEX ENERGY TR UTS

(BTE)

12.8

5.0%

2.77B

CANADIAN IMP BK COMM

(CM)

3.7

5.0%

2.98B

BROOKFIELD PTYS CP

(BPO)

6.2

4.6%

4.47B

TRANSCANADA CORP

(TRP)

15.1

4.3%

21.71B

SHAW COMM CL B NV

(SJR)

15.6

4.2%

8.24B

ROGERS COMMUN CL B

(RCI)

16.8

4.0%

16.57B

BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA

(BNS)

16.7

3.9%

45.86B

TORONTO DOMINION

(TD)

17.4

3.5%

53.70B

 

These 18 high-dividend companies are in 4 sectors: Energy, Financial, Telecom and Utilities.

 

Energy Income Trust

High demand from China and a weak US dollar make the energy sector attractive.  7 companies belong to energy income trust category:

 

Symbol

Operating Margin

Debt/Operating CF

52-wk Range

(BTE)

36%

1.0

7.84 – 26.44

(ERF)

51%

0.7

12.85 – 28.58

(HTE)

10%

3.2

3.00 – 11.55

(PDS)

28%

2.0

2.00 – 12.21

(PGH)

22%

2.5

4.51 – 11.90

(PVX)

23%

1.5

2.23 – 6.84

(PWE)

58%

2.3

6.77 – 19.01

 

 

For sophisticated traders, trading commodities directly might provide a higher reward. For income investors, commodity companies might be a better choice because they provide some buffer, in addition to regular dividends.

 

There is a small ETF called Claymore Canadian Energy Income (ENY) which includes most of these companies. Its yield is 5.45%.

 

 

Financials

The Following are comparisons between Canadian banks, U.S. major banks averages, as well as JPMorgan Chase (JPM), one of the most conservative banks in the US. Clearly Canadian banks are much more profitable.

 

Description

P/E

ROE %

Div. Yield %

Net Profit Margin %

U.S. Money Center Banks

n/a

1.1%

1.1%

1.3%

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

52.6

2.9%

0.4%

15.5%

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

17.6

9.4%

3.5%

22.2%

The Bank Of Nova Scotia (BNS)

16.8

13.2%

3.9%

28.9%

CIBC (CM)

3.8

7.0%

5.0%

18.8%

Bank of Montreal (BMO)

17.4

9.2%

5.1%

21.8%

 

 

Telecom

Competition in the telecom sector is heating up in Canada. When BCE (BCE) and Telus (TU) announced they will start carrying the iPhone next month which puts an end to the exclusivity that Rogers (RCI) has enjoyed, it sent RCI’s short ratio to a stunning high of 33. Unlike those 3, Shaw Communications (SJR) primarily focuses on cable services.

 

Utilities

TransAlta (TAC) is an electric utility company while TransCanada (TRP) operates through two segments: pipelines and energy. TAC’s short ratio of 5.8 makes me nervous.

 

 Conclusion

After boldly buying when others were selling, Warren Buffet is pulling back, buying fewer stocks while investing in debt.  He is warning that the economy, though on the mend, remains deeply troubled.

 

In addition, the Canadian dollar is a strong threat to the Canadian economy. CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC) appreciated over 13% this year. Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of Canada, has warned that the Canadian dollar appears to be moving away from the fundamentals. 

 

The iShares MSCI Canada Index (EWC) year-to-date’s return is an astonishing 46%. A great stock can be easily turned into a bad investment, if you buy it at a higher than reasonable price.  It all depends on the starting price.

 

Nonetheless, high-dividend, fundamentally-strong companies are more likely to survive in this stormy market. One of the greatest ways to protect your portfolio is through asset allocation: to make sure not a single sector accounts for more than 20% of your portfolio. Be sure to re-balance as it will automatically enroll you into the “buy low, sell high” camp.

 

Disclosure: I have long positions on BMO, BNS, CM, PWE, TD, and TRE. All data is from Yahoo Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/) as of Oct 16, 2009. 

 

Stocks: BCE, BMO, BNS, BPO, BTE, CM, ENY, ERF, EWC, FXC, THE, JPM, PDS,

PGH, PVX, PWE, RCI, SJR, TAC, TD, TRP, TU

 

Hao Jin, CFA
Contributing Writer

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/canadian-income-stocks-1360481.html

Mid-Week Commodity ETF Update!

November 5, 2011 Posted by admin

Commodities and stocks have been on fire the past two weeks and I think it just may be time for things to take a breather. While I continue to stay long, taking some money off the table to lock in profits is a safe play. 

 

If you look  at the charts we can tell the odds are pointing to some type of pause or pullback in the coming days. I figure any day now we could see some profit taking.

 

Gold ETF Trading – GLD

The Gold ETF is one of my favorite trading vehicles. Using simple trend lines and looking at the recent price action you can see that the price of gold is looking ready for a pullback. Buying at this level is chasing and that generally means you buy at the high and panic out at the low.

 

Silver ETF Trading – SLV

The Silver ETF looks to be in the same boat as gold. I expect to see some sideways price action or a pullback.

 

Natural Gas ETF Trading – UNG

The Natural Gas ETF sure has given everyone a wild ride in the past 6 months. The bear market is still in place which can be seen on the daily chart. So far this week the price has broken down and trading at the $11 support level. This fund could generate a buy or sell signal with my trading model in the coming days so I am waiting for a clear entry and exit point before jumping on the gas wagon.

 

Crude Oil ETF Trading – USO

The Crude Oil ETF has broken above its resistance trend line this week but still struggling to move above the August high. Volume is declining while the price rises which is a bearish indicator. USO looks ready for some type of a pullback as it digests this breakout before moving higher.

 

Mid-Week GLD, SLV, UNG, USO ETF Trading Report

What does the general public hear and think about the stock market?

From recent emails, local financial news shows, family, friends etc… all I am hearing is how strong the market is. Indexes are making new yearly highs and company earnings are better than expected this quarter. Sounds like all we need to do is buy and life will be great!

 

Well in my opinion the market is the perfect tool for misguiding and frustrating the general public. All my indicators are telling me we need more of a correction before rallying much higher. The market (smart money) generally anticipates good and bad news several weeks if not a month in advance. So the question is:

 

Are company earnings already priced into the market?

 

Is all this positive market coverage getting the general public to buy up here at this possible market top?

 

The answer is, only time will tell. No one knows for sure what the market is going to do but short term moves can be predicted with relatively high accuracy.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I am still bullish on the market but with all this good news becoming public information you have to wonder what is next. I am still long the market but trimming my positions to lock in profits and still stay in the game.

 

Chris Vermeulen
Contributing Writer

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/midweek-commodity-etf-update-1343760.html

Year End Commodity & ETF Trading Signals

December 31, 2009 Posted by admin

Well, here we are with only hours left before the year is over. Virtually every investment is up other than the US dollar.

Not much has changed since my last gold market trends report. But I have provided some interesting charts that show us what is possible in the coming weeks for the dollar, gold and natural gas.

US Dollar Trend Analysis – Resistance Levels
The dollar has shown some strength in the past month. It was a no brainer trade for 2009. You were either long gold or short the dollar. The chart below shows the key resistance levels for the $USD. I have a feeling we are going to see the dollar test the 80 -81 levels before rolling over and heading south again.

If this happens then gold and silver will continue to pull back. I am actually hoping the dollar moves higher and gold drops back to test the $1000-1060 level. This would clear the way for gold and the dollar to continue with their longer term trends with increased momentum (dollar collapses, gold goes parabolic).
Dollar Trend

GLD Gold ETF – Daily Chart
The daily gold swing trading chart is really starting to look attractive for a buy signal. Depending on what the US dollar does in the coming days will set the tone for gold.

We could see gold start to rally starting tomorrow or it will become volatile and start to sell off sharply in the coming days. Right now we have very light volume so any moves/breakouts cannot be taken seriously or with a large position.

If the dollar starts to rally we could see the GLD ETF drop to the $97.50 – $103 level.
Gold Trend Trading

Spot Gold Trend Analysis – 18 Day, 1hr Bar Chart
Starting in 2010 I will be providing futures trading analysis and signals so I thought I would provide a chart of the spot gold trend I have been day trading over the holidays.

This may seem like I am going against my #1 trading Rule – Never Trade Against the Trend, but the trend changes depending on time frame and trading style you are using. In short, gold reversed very strong 18 days ago just as we anticipated it would. The selling momentum was so strong it made for excellent gold futures day trading setups which I took advantage of over the past 10 trading days.

The chart below is of the 100 ounce gold GC Feb 10 futures contract which I traded. The chart is shrunk down and does not show my setups, nor does the chart look very sexy, but it clearly shows the direction of the trend and the BIG SELLING VOLUME.

The table shows my recent trades and if you take a close look all of the trades I did were Short Trades. Because the momentum and trend is down on this time frame I only traded perfect short setups (profiting from gold as it loses value).
Gold Futures Trading

UNG Natural Gas Trading Fund
UNG appears to be trading at resistance and starting to look like its rolling over. It did move above last weeks high which voids the reversal candle we had Tuesday and Thursday, or else it would have been a short setup for us. I don’t chase a trade, that’s my #2 rule, so I am waiting for a possible bounce here, test of resistance then another reversal back down.
Natural Gas Trends

Commodity & ETF Year End Trends:
In short, we continue the waiting game for more setups in the coming weeks as volatility and volume creep back into the market. The dollar and gold are currently trading at pivot points and no one knows which way to play them.

Trading futures run virtually 24 hours a day and have provided some excellent trading opportunities that I will be providing in the coming weeks for traders.

Natural Gas is trading at pivot point and looking ready for another move down.

Crude oil and the board market I feel will top out in the next 2-5 days but nothing worth putting any money on at this time.

I would like to thank everyone for their kind words and support over the past 12 months. I wish you all a happy and safe New Years!

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. Since 2001 Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris’ uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

Reach Chris at: Chris[at]theGoildAndOilGuy[dot]com

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/year-end-commodity-etf-trading-signals-1647286.html