Posts Tagged: ‘analysis’

Analysis of Moving Averages

December 2, 2011 Posted by admin

In technical analysis a moving average (MA) is used as a tool to analyze a set of price data points (price bars) by creating a set of averaged price data in order to smooth out short-term price movements and swings and highlight longer-term price trends. The moving average applied to the price does not predict changes in a trend by itself, yet it can describe the current price trend sentiment. Furthermore, if a moving average rises an analyst may say that the current price trend is Bullish. Controversially, if a moving average declines, an analyst may say that the current price trend is Bearish.

There are two types of moving averages: simple moving average (SMA) and exponential moving average (EMA). Simple moving average is calculated as an average close price of price bars over specified period of time. An exponential moving average has weighted coefficient and in some cases it could be called as weighted moving average.

As was mentioned above, a moving average does not predict trend reversal by itself; yet, it could be used in combination with other technical indicators (even with another moving average) to time the price changes. For instance, by taking two moving averages with different period setting and comparing them a trader compares shorter-term trend (expressed by shorter-term moving average) to the longer-term trend (described by longer-term moving average). In some cases shorter-term moving average called as fast MA and longer-term moving average is called as slow MA. As a result of comparison of two moving averages a trader (analysts) may define how shorter-term trend moves in relation to the longer-term trend trend. In particular, whether it confirms the longer-term trend by moving along with it, or a shorter-term MA moves in opposite direction to a longer-term trend by indicating a possible coming change in the longer-term sentiment.

There are other aspects of technical analysis where moving averages are used. The moving averages are considered as a basic and foundation for many technical indicators and because of that they could be named as main and most important tools in the technical analysis. You may see moving averages as a part of a calculation of some indicators, moving averages are applied to other than price data to smooth out them, moving averages are used to smooth already build indicators, they are used to draw signals lines, they are used to filter fake trading signals, etc.

The main purpose of moving average is to smooth data and filter fluctuation that may generate fake trading signal, yet, a trader should remember that moving averages are lagging indicator (trend following) and their application brings lag (delay) into generation of trading signals.

Find various technical analysis methods, trading systems, charts and quotes for DJI, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and other indexes for ETF (QQQQ, DOW, SPY…), stocks and options trading.

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/analysis-of-moving-averages-1475029.html

Dow Nasdaq U.S.Stocks Technical Analysis By Bullet Advisory

November 21, 2011 Posted by admin

Bullet Advice for Indian Stocks-U.S.Market Trend

DOW (10023.40) and NASDAQ (2212.44) closed 3.2% and 3.3% up respectively last week.Support for DOW is at 9765 and NASDAQ 2050.Resistance for DOW is at 10300 and NASDAQ 2175.

Trend Of Major Indices and Stocks

Symbol Trend No. of Days WeeklyTrend Month

^DJI     Bulllish  3          Flat!     Flat!

^IXIC  Bulllish  4          Flat!     Flat!

AA       Bulllish  2          Flat!     Flat!

AXP    Bulllish  5          Flat!     Flat!

BA       Bulllish  5          Flat!     Flat!

C         Bulllish  2          Flat!     Flat!

CAT    Bulllish  2          Flat!     Flat!

DD       Bulllish  2          Flat!     Flat!

DIS      Bulllish  4          Flat!     Flat!

EK       Bulllish  6          Flat!     Flat!

GE       Bulllish  2          Flat!     Flat!

HD       Bulllish  2          Flat!     Flat!

HON   Bulllish  3          Flat!     Flat!

IBM     Bulllish  4          Rising   Flat!

INTC   Bulllish  2          Flat!     Flat!

IP         Bulllish  5          Flat!     Flat!

JNJ      Bulllish  3          Flat!     Flat!

JPM     Bulllish  2          Flat!     Flat!

KO      Bulllish  3          Flat!     Flat!

MCD   Bulllish  3          Flat!     Flat!

MMM  Bulllish  2          Flat!     Flat!

MO      Neutral         1  Flat!     Flat!

MRK   Bulllish  3          Flat!     Flat!

MSFT  Bulllish  2          Flat!     Flat!

PG       Bulllish  3          Flat!     Flat!

T          Bulllish  2          Flat!     Flat!

UTX    Bulllish  4          Flat!     Flat!

WMT   Bulllish  3          Flat!     Flat!

XOM   Bulllish  2          Flat!     Flat!

Useful Technical Indicators for Major Indices and Stocks

Symbol Close PVBreakout MFI-21 RSI-14

  1. ^DJI   10023.42 Neutral          42.02   57.58   18.62
  2. GE       15.33   Neutral 27.55   51.86   22.23
  3. IBM     123.49 Neutral 48.73   55.68   15.02
  4. MSFT  28.52   Neutral 60.1     67.4     36.32
  5. PG       61.04   Neutral 60.6     69.8     32.78

MFI=Money Flow Index

RSI=Relative Strength Index

PV=Price Volume

Trading Idea

(1)GE(15.33)Buy at declines and trade.

By

Bullet Advisory Indian Stocks-India’s Top Most No.1 Best Stock Market Advice Blog,Hot Stock Tips Calls by Expert Technical Analyst Narendra Nainani of India.Most Preferred and Successful Paid Subscription Stock Tips Calls Website of India.Excellent Success Ratio of more than 90% with Superb trading ideas.Most Successful Intraday Stock Future Calls Provider Service Indian Share Market.

Website http://www.narendranainani.blogspot.com

Narendra Nainani
AHMEDABAD, GUJARAT, India
Narendra Nainani is renowned technical analyst and stock market advisor of INDIA having experience of more than 26 years having excellent success ratio.Expert in Derivatives Products-Futures & Options,Intraday,Short Term ,Medium Term,Long Term,Portfolio Management,IPO & Mutual Fund Advisor.Covered regularly by E TV & Business Magazines like The Economic Revolution for Market views.
India’s top most no.1 best stockmarket advice blog hot stocktips calls by expert technical analyst of India.Most preferred paid subscription stocktips calls website India.Excellent success ratio of more than 90%.good superb trading ideas.M-9898162770
Website MostSuccessfulIntraDayStockFutureTipsProviderIndia.

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/dow-nasdaq-usstocks-technical-analysis-by-bullet-advisory-1434729.html

Specifics of Trin Analysis

January 4, 2010 Posted by admin

TRIN (Arms Index) has been developed to detect overbought/oversold levels and could be considered as one of the most complex technical studies from the group of Breadth (advance/Decline) indicators in its interpretation.

The TRIN indicator is based on the advance decline issues and advance decline volume data. The same as with other Breadth indicators, TRIN could be applied to the basket of stocks (indexes, exchanges, etc) and cannot be applied to a single stock. It is calculated as a ratio between advance/decline issues ratio and advance/decline volume ratio:

TRIN = [Advance Decline Issues Ratio] / [Advance Decline Volume Ratio]

where

Advance Decline Issues Ratio = [Advanced Stocks] / [Declined Stocks]
and
Advance Decline Volume Ratio = [Advanced Volume] / [Declined Volume]

Furthermore TRIN formula could be expressed in the following format:

TRIN = ([Advanced Stocks] * [Declined Volume]) / ([Declined Stocks] * [Advance Volume])

The TRIN values are always positive (above zero) and as a rule they are oscillating around 1. In technical analysis TRIN readings above 1 are considered Bearish and readings below 1 are considered Bullish. However, from the formula above you may see that Bearish TRIN readings could run to infinity, yet, Bullish TRIN values can ran to zero only. This is the first challenge of this technical indicator. In order to correctly see the indicator’s values a technical analysts (trader) would need a chart with logarithmic scaling where he/she would be able to see values between zero and one as clearly as the values between 1 and 2000 for instance (2000 is approximate number of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange).

The second challenge is in the evaluating of the oversold levels. If for all indexes TRIN Bullish indications are in the range between zero and one and overbought levels for different indexes could be defined at similar levels, then TRIN Bearish oversold indication for the NYSE (the New York Stock Exchange) which has about 2000 stocks listed would differ from the oversold levels of the DJI (Dow Jones Industrials) index which has only 30 stocks in the basket.

The last challenge is hidden in the interpretation of the TRIN reading itself. Since the TRIN calculations are based on the ratio of ratios there could be several conditions when it could be below or above 1. It is much simpler when you have an indicator that has only one ratio in calculations. For instance, Advance/Decline ratio is below 1 when the number of the declined stocks overcomes the number of the advance stocks and it is above 1 when the number of advanced stocks is bigger than the number of declined stocks. In TRIN situation (ratio of ratios) it could be below 1 when

- The number of declining stocks is bigger than the number of advancing stocks and the declined volume is lower than advanced volume – AD issues ratio is less than 1 and AD volume ratio bigger than 1;
- The number of declining stocks is bigger than the number of advancing stocks and the declined volume is bigger than advanced volume, yet, the declined volume overcomes advanced volume not as strongly as declining stocks overcome advancing stocks: AD issues ratio is less than 1 and AD volume ratio less than 1 and AD issues ratio is less than AD volume ratio;
- The number of advancing stocks is bigger than the number of declining stocks and advanced volume is bigger than declined volume, yet, the advanced volume overcomes declined volume much stronger than advancing stocks overcome declining stocks: AD issues ratio is bigger than 1 and AD volume ratio is bigger than 1 and AD issues ratio is less than AD volume ratio.

Similar situation could be considered for TRIN values above 1. As you may see, analyzing 6 possible condition of TRIN could be more complex than the technical analysis of simple indicator that is based on two conditions only.

Trin charts and quotes for major indexes and exchanges (including S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJI, etc) could be found on the MarketVolume website that is the leader in the index and ETFs (QQQQ, SPY, DIA) technical analysis.

Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/specifics-of-trin-analysis-1660946.html